As I’ve been making last minute preparations for the hurricane, I’ve been listening to minute-by-minute updates on the radio. The last update I heard was followed by the station’s tag line which included the phrase “computerized weather.” I was curious exactly what that statement meant so I did some research which led to me changing the subject of this week’s article.
For years weather has been predicted using meteorological data from other parts of the country. Meteorologists tracked storms and tried to predict where it was going land next creating a reasonable forecast. Forecasters used the collected data from others as well as a regionalized history to determine future conditions.
Lewis Fry Richardson devised the first mathematical model of predicting weather in 1922. At that point calculations were fairly laborious without the use of computers. It wasn’t until 30 years later, in 1950, that a group led by mathematician John Von Neumann first used computers to perform the calculations.
The basic system created by Richardson is called Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and uses data collected from weather stations, satellites, and current local weather conditions. Data collected from these and other sources is inputted into a supercomputer which runs billions of computations in expectation of accurately predicting weather.
As I understand it, the supercomputers are programmed with algorithms specific to localized regions. In other words, our weather conditions in central Massachusetts are predicted differently than in Minnesota. According to what I’ve been reading, most computerized predictions are performed by local colleges and universities that have the equipment to handle these massive computations.
During my research I uncovered the National Weather Service has a division established specifically to track hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center is located in Princeton New Jersey. The Hurricane Center created its own algorithm and formula for following hurricanes up the East Coast and Eastern Pacific region. The group uses computers to research storms and predict the up-and-coming.
Provided broadcast media doesn’t fail because of the storm there is a possibility we may receive notifications from the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS). The EBS was originally created in 1963 as a means for the President to notify the general public of a federal emergency. Though the system has never been used for its original intent, it has been used 20,000 times to broadcast important regional information and weather related emergencies.
Functionally, the EBS is kind of neat. In the case of a bad weather alert, the National Weather Service sends an encoded message over a radio frequency specific to its broadcast. Local radio and television stations then intercept and decode the message. Finally, it is then translated into whatever language dominates the station’s viewers and is rebroadcast automatically.
In the past I’ve talked about my daughters’ school and the technical level that most schools are currently functioning. With the push of a few buttons my daughters and everyone else on the broadcast list received a text message stating there was no school tomorrow. This saved hours of phone calls to parents and students notifying them of the cancellation because the system is completely automatic.
If we lose power tomorrow I have to admit I won’t be thinking much about technology. If the power does go out I’m going to be relying on low technology items and watching the wind and rain take their toll. I fired my generator for the first time in six months, changed the batteries in my flashlights, and made sure candles are at hand. If we lose power tomorrow I suspect I’ll be most worried about warming my can of beans on my Sterno fueled stove.
(Jeromy Patriquin is the President of Laptop & Computer Repair, Inc. located at 509 Main St. in Gardner. You can call him directly at (978) 919-8059) or visit www.LocalComputerWiz.com.